Indian Ocean reinforcing El Nino for October

07/10/2015

The Bureau has today issued a mid-cycle update to its Climate Outlook for October to December 2015, as a result of rapidly evolving changes in key climate drivers in the oceans around Australia.

Bureau of Meteorology Climate Prediction Manager, Dr Andrew Watkins, said the Bureau monitors its rainfall and temperature model outlooks very closely.

“Since we released the Climate Outlook, there has been a significant shift toward a drier October for much of Australia. It’s highly likely this is related to a rapidly strengthening positive Indian Ocean Dipole,” said Dr. Watkins.

“We have been watching the waters to Australia’s northwest for signs of sea surface cooling that could reinforce the impact of the current strong El Niño. We are now seeing these signs, and their impact has been reflected in the most recent model outlooks for October.

“Recent upgrades to the Bureau's Climate Outlook service have provided the capability to issue more frequent updates in exceptional circumstances, and we urge all stakeholders who rely on these outlooks in their planning to monitor our website for further updates,” he said.

The Bureau has recently upgraded its climate outlook service to enable special updates when necessary. An update of the October and October–December climate outlooks has been issued due to a significant shift in the October outlook nation-wide, related to a strengthening positive Indian Ocean Dipole reinforcing the impacts of the strong El Niño.

The update indicates:

• October likely to be drier across Australia.
• September rainfall for Australia was third lowest on record.
• Warmer days and nights are likely for large parts of Australia.
• Climate influences include a mature El Niño in the Pacific Ocean and an emerging positive Indian Ocean Dipole.

For further information see the updated Climate Outlook.