Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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Birds of a feather can win in all weather


The Bureau’s forecast for Grand Final Day in Melbourne is chilly, but history shows that both teams can win in all weather.

The Bureau is forecasting one of the coolest VFL/AFL Grand Finals on record, with temperatures likely to be in the low to mid-teens with a chance of showers, although it's unlikely at this stage to break the coldest ever Grand Final maximum of 11.3 degrees in 1958. The average maximum temperature for all GF days is 18.2 degrees, with about 1 in 3 having some rain during the day.

“It’s a shame that Melbourne won’t be putting on a warmer welcome for Eagles fans making the trip over”, says the Bureau's Victorian State Manager Andrew Tupper. “But for what it’s worth, it won’t necessarily disadvantage the team. All three of the Eagles’ Premierships have been won in average to cool conditions. In 1992, the max was only 15.1, and in 1994 and 2006 it was 17.8, so the Eagles have shown that they do just fine in cool Victorian weather. In fact when they played in the hottest Grand Final on record, reaching 31.3 in 2015, Hawthorn gave them a thrashing.”

The Bureau has compared all of the VFL/AFL Grand Final results with official temperature readings from 1898 onwards. Collingwood’s premierships have tended to be in warmer conditions, with the average maximum for Collingwood's 15 wins being 18.3 degrees. “However, their 13th flag, in 1958, was also the coldest on record”, said Dr Tupper. “97,956 shivering people saw Collingwood defeat Melbourne 12.10 (82) to 9.10 (64) on a showery day with a maximum of just 11.3 degrees. Collingwood also won the wettest Grand Final on record in 1927, when just 34,551 watched a miserably low scoring match in steady rain. 16.3 mm of rainfall was recorded over the day and Collingwood defeated Richmond 2.13 (25) to 1.7 (13).”

Friday’s Grand Final holiday is also lining up to be coolish, with a shower or two. “Dress to the conditions and keep a weather eye out”, said Dr Tupper. “Melbourne’s spring weather is famously variable, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be planned for. The last thing we want is anybody’s long weekend ruined because of the cold snap that we’re expecting – so it's always important to keep up to date with the latest on the weather by going to our website or checking the Bureau's App.”