Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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Heavy rain forecast for south-east Australia as New South Wales faces ongoing flooding


Issued: 5pm AEDT Tuesday 11 October 2022

There will be a cold front and low-pressure system with widespread heavy rainfall from Wednesday for Victoria, northern Tasmania, southern New South Wales and far eastern South Australia, bringing renewed flood risks to some areas.

Some communities in inland New South Wales may see renewed river rises, however rainfall totals are not expected to be as high as previous rain events; the bulk of the rain is expected through western New South Wales, Victoria and northern Tasmania.

On Wednesday (24 hrs to Wednesday night) widespread rainfall totals of 5 – 15 mm are anticipated for inland South Australia, southern New South Wales, northern and central Victoria, and northern Tasmania. Higher totals of 15-50 mm are likely, particularly with storms about southern New South Wales, on and north of the Victoria ranges, and northern Tasmania.

Rain increases across all four states on Thursday as a low-pressure system develops over inland New South Wales.

Southern New South Wales, northern and central Victoria including Melbourne and northern Tasmania will likely see 30 – 60 mm of rainfall. For Melbourne, the risk of heavy rainfall is likely on Wednesday and Thursday.

Higher rainfall totals above 80 mm are possible on and north of the Victorian central ranges.

Severe Weather Warnings for heavy rain leading to localised flash flooding will be issued for parts of both Victoria and Tasmania.

South-west Queensland, South Australia, and western NSW will see rainfall of 5 -15 mm on Thursday, with higher falls of 15 – 40 mm likely.

Gusty winds will increase on Thursday afternoon across inland New South Wales, Tasmania and central Victoria, more notably for elevated alpine areas where warnings for damaging winds may be issued.

Rain will reach eastern New South Wales, including Sydney, on Friday morning. The highest totals are expected on and west of the divide, however high rainfall amounts are not expected as the system will move offshore quickly by Friday evening.

The additional rainfall this week will further exacerbate the flooding situation across southern NSW and Victoria, with the prime focus shifting to Victoria, northern Tasmania and southern New South Wales, with many moderate to major flood warnings possible depending on exactly where the heaviest falls occur.

Landslips are possible given sodden soils, and the expectation of further rain.

Residents and communities living on or near any rivers, creeks and streams or in low lying areas, especially in northern Victoria, Tasmania and the Riverina of New South Wales are advised to stay up to date with the latest forecast and warnings.

For all the latest Warnings see National Warnings Summary (

Know your weather, know your risk. Communities should stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings via our website and BOM Weather app and follow advice of emergency services.