Bureau of Meteorology's 2024 Autumn Long-Range Forecast

29/02/2024

Warmer days and nights are likely according to the Bureau of Meteorology's long-range forecast.

It shows most of Australia has at least an 80% chance of above average temperatures this autumn.

This follows a summer that is on track to be Australia's third-warmest on record nationally.

In autumn, there is a 60% to 75% chance of below median rainfall for:

• Most of New South Wales– excluding some eastern areas
• Most of Victoria including Melbourne – excluding East Gippsland
• Most of Queensland – excluding parts of the south-east, North Tropical Coast
• Parts of South Australia, including Adelaide, the southeast, east and northeastern border districts
• Northern and eastern Tasmania
• South-west corner of Western Australia including Perth and large parts of the north – excluding most southern and central areas
• Most of the Northern Territory – excluding the Top End and south-west corner

There is a roughly equal chance of above or below median rainfall for:

• Most parts of eastern New South Wales including Sydney, the Hunter and South Coast
• East Gippsland in Victoria
• Most areas of South Australia
• South-eastern Queensland, the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands
• Western Tasmania
• Most of and southern and central Western Australia
• Parts of the Northern Territory's Daly region and south-west corner.

The northern wet season typically continues until the end of April. Heavy rainfall associated with tropical cyclones, tropical lows, storms and active monsoon bursts may still occur in the north.

Most of the country is expected to have typical fire potential during autumn.

It is important to understand that weather forecasts, especially long-range ones, are probabilistic in nature and always carry a certain degree of uncertainty.

The Bureau's Long-Range Forecast is updated regularly to reflect the latest forecast.

Preliminary summer summary

Australia is on track to have the third-warmest summer on record nationally, after 2018–19 and 2019–20.

All states and territories had above-average daytime and night-time temperatures, except Victoria, and are likely to be in the top 10 warmest on record.

Western Australia is on track to have its warmest summer on record. The state's previous hottest summer was 2018–2019.

Summer has been wetter than usual for many areas. Rainfall is tracking around 14% above average for Australia overall. This is Australia's third-highest summer rainfall total on record during an El Niño, behind 2009–10 and 1994–95.

In contrast, summer has been much drier than usual for parts of Western Australia and Tasmania which had around 23% and 18% below average rainfall respectively.

This is preliminary data ahead of the national summary release on the Bureau's website from 1 March.

From 5 March 2024, we are due to release state, territory and capital city summaries for summer and February.

Ends