April 16 2024 Climate Driver Update: Tropical Pacific Ocean now ENSO neutral

16/04/2024

Issued: Tuesday, 16 April 2024

The tropical Pacific Ocean has returned to ENSO-neutral according to the latest monitoring by the Bureau of Meteorology.

The change to ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions means neither El Niño nor La Niña are active.

Rainfall and temperature forecasts are not based on El Niño and La Niña forecasts.

The long-range forecast is the best guidance for future rainfall and temperature beyond the short-term weather forecast.

The latest long-range forecast shows that for May to July:

• While Australia is heading into cooler months, temperatures are likely to be above median for most of the continent.
• Parts of the east and west of Australia have an increased chance of unusually warm temperatures.
• Most of Australia has roughly an equal chance of above or below median rainfall. Despite this, there is still a chance (between 10 to 30%) of significantly high or low rainfall.
• Rainfall will likely be below median for small areas of the southern mainland and parts of the north; however, for most of northern Australia rainfall is typically low at this time of year, with median rainfall less than 10 mm.

A clearer indication of the likely 2024 winter forecast, including any changes in the ENSO Outlook, is expected later in autumn.

In the Bureau’s history of ENSO events, El Niño years are followed by ENSO-neutral years about 50% of the time.

El Niño years are followed by La Niña years about 40% of the time. In around 10% of years an El Niño year has been followed by another El Niño year.

ENDS