Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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The Bureau moves to La Nina watch


Issued 3pm AEST Tuesday 14 May 2024

The Bureau of Meteorology has moved to a La Niña Watch.

While conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean are currently neutral, there are some signs that a La Niña may form in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024. It is important to note, however, that there is a similar likelihood that the tropical Pacific Ocean will remain neutral.

Moving to La Nina watch does not mean that the Bureau is declaring that a La Niña event is underway.

Bureau of Meteorology Climate Manager Dr Karl Braganza said rainfall and temperature forecasts are not based on the status of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation Outlook.

"The best guidance for future rainfall or temperature forecasts is the Bureau’s long-range forecast.

"The long-range forecast for June to August is showing an increased chance of above average rainfall for parts of eastern Australia, and parts of Western Australia and South Australia

"There are roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall for most of eastern Australia, including much of Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania."

June to August maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely to be above median across all States and Territories.

The Bureau's long-range forecast winter outlook will be released at the end of May, while the Spring and Summer outlooks will be released later in the year.

La Niña, along with El Niño, is part of a natural climate cycle known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).