Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

 
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The Bureau of Meteorology issues 2024 Winter Long-Range Forecast

30/05/2024

Issued: 11am AEST Thursdsay 30 May 2024

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued its long-range forecast for winter.

The long-range forecast shows above average rainfall is likely for some southern central and western parts of Australia. Elsewhere, rainfall is likely to be more typical for the season.

This winter, there is an increased chance of above average rainfall for:

  • Parts of North West and North East pastoral districts in South Australia
  • Parts of central-west Western Australia
  • North Tropical Coast and south-west Queensland
  • Far north-western New South Wales

Australia is very likely to have temperatures that are higher than usual for this time year.

This follows an autumn that was warmer than usual for most parts of Australia and brought very dry conditions to the far south of the country and south-west Western Australia.

The Bureau does not issue an official snow season forecast, and the Bureau's short term 7-day weather forecast is the best guidance for snowfall updates.

The Bureau’s long-range forecasts are probabilistic in nature and carry a degree of uncertainty. They are updated regularly to reflect the latest forecast.

Preliminary National Autumn Summary

This is preliminary data ahead of the national autumn summary release on the Bureau’s website from 3 June 2024.

Autumn has been warmer than usual for much of Australia, with the mean temperature around 0.5 °C above the 1961–1990 average.

Each state and territory recorded above average mean temperatures, besides the Northern Territory which was around 0.4 °C cooler than usual.

Autumn has been wetter than usual for some parts of Australia, with overall rainfall 26% above the 1961–1990 average.

In contrast, autumn rainfall was very much below average for south-west Western Australia and parts of Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia.

From 5 June 2024, the Bureau is due to release state, territory and capital city summaries for autumn and May.

More information: Overview—Summary - Climate Outlooks (bom.gov.au)

ENDS