Bureau of Meteorology's 2024 Spring Long-Range Forecast

29/08/2024

The Bureau of Meteorology has released its 2024 Spring Long-Range Forecast.

The long-range forecast provides guidance on the likelihood that different parts of the country will see conditions that are warmer or cooler, or wetter and drier than average over the next 3 months.

The Spring Long-Range Forecast shows an increased likelihood of warmer than average temperatures across all states and territories this spring.

Rainfall forecasts are more mixed, with an increased likelihood of above average for large parts of eastern Australia, and more likely below average rainfall for large parts of Western Australia.

The Long-Range Forecast is updated weekly with the forecast accuracy steadily improving as the start of the next month approaches.

It is worth noting that spring is typically a time when southern Australia experiences large swings in weather associated with passage of cold fronts across the south, as well as more thunderstorm activity as the weather warms. Stay up to date with the 7-day forecast for your area at www.bom.gov.au

2024 Spring Long-Range Forecast (states and territories)

New South Wales and the ACT

Most of New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory have increased chances of warmer than usual spring temperatures.

Parts of eastern NSW, including around Sydney, are likely to see temperatures in the typical range for spring.

Most of NSW and the ACT have increased chances of above average spring rainfall.

There's also an increased chance for unusually high spring rainfall for most of the northern half of the state, extending into some central areas.

Spring rainfall in recent decades has typically been between 100 to 300 mm along the east coast and 25 to 100 mm in western NSW.

Victoria

Victoria has an increased chance of warmer than usual spring temperatures.

Most of Victoria is likely to have rainfall within the typical range for spring. This follows several very dry months in the west of the state.

There's a slightly increased chance of above average spring rainfall for a part of the state's south-west.

Queensland

All of Queensland has an increased chance of warmer than usual spring temperatures with an increased chance of unusually warm days and nights for most of the state.

Most of Queensland is likely to have above average rainfall, especially southern and central areas.

Northern Australia's official wet season begins in October.

The first significant rains of this northern wet season are likely to be earlier than usual for most of Queensland.

Western Australia

Most of Western Australia has an increased chance of warmer than usual spring temperatures with an increased chance of unusually warm days and nights in some northern areas.

Perth and parts of the state’s south can expect average daytime temperatures for spring.

Rainfall in south-west WA, including Perth, is likely to be within the typical range for spring.

Spring rainfall has typically been between 50 to 300 mm in recent decades for most of the South West Land Division.

Below average rainfall is likely in parts of the mid-west and central inland regions.

Northern Australia's official wet season begins in October. The first significant rains of this northern wet season are likely to be later than usual for most of WA's northern areas.

South Australia

South Australia has an increased chance of warmer than usual temperatures across spring.

Adelaide, parts of the state's southern agricultural areas and parts of the north have a slightly increased chance of above average spring rainfall. This follows a prolonged period of dry conditions that have prevailed in the south-east of the state this year.

The forecast shows a more typical range of spring rainfall is likely for the rest of the state.

Tasmania

Tasmania has an increased chance of warmer than usual spring temperatures with an increased chance of unusually warm days and nights.

There's a higher chance of above average spring rainfall for eastern Tasmania.

There's an increased chance for unusually high spring rainfall in parts of the east.

Western Tasmania is likely to have rainfall within the typical range for spring, noting that recent rainfall has helped alleviate dry conditions experienced during autumn and winter.

Northern Territory

All of the Northern Territory has an increased chance of warmer than usual spring temperatures with an increased chance of unusually warm days and nights for most areas.

The forecast shows that a typical range of spring rainfall is likely for most of the Territory.

Northern Australia's official wet season begins in October.

The first significant rains of this northern wet season are likely to be earlier than usual for parts of the Top End.

Winter – preliminary summary

Despite some typically cool winter temperatures at times on the east coast, winter has been warmer than usual across the country with August on track to be Australia’s warmest August on record.

While winter rainfall has been close to average for many areas, parts of Australia’s south-east have been drier than usual.

Overall, Australia's mean temperature will be around 1.5 °C above the 1961–1990 winter average.

The national summary for winter and August will be on the Bureau's website from 2 September: News reports and summaries (bom.gov.au)

Detailed summaries for winter and August conditions for each state and capital city will be published on 4 September.

ENDS