Summer of 2017-18: What to Expect
30/11/2017
Issued: 30 November 2017
Many parts of Australia are likely to experience a warmer than average summer, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s summer outlook for 2017-18, issued today.
But Dr. Andrew Watkins, the Bureau’s Manager, Long-range Forecasts, said there’s little indication of an extremely wet or dry summer on the way.
“We’re not expecting to see a strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average season for most of Australia,” said Dr Watkins.
However, “December rainfall is likely to be above average, particularly in the southeast,” he said, as the Bureau forecasts a very wet start to December.
“When it comes to temperatures, the regions that are most likely to be warmer than average are in central Australia and the southeast, where warmer daytime and overnight temperatures are likely in December.”
A La Niña ALERT was activated on 21 November, meaning that the chance of La Niña forming over summer has increased to at least 70%. This is around three times the normal likelihood.
"In two out of every three La Niñas, we see widespread above average rainfall across the country", Dr Watkins noted. "But if we have a La Niña this summer, it is likely to be weak and short lived, with less impact than recent events."
The Bureau's tropical cyclone outlook suggests a typical cyclone season is likely.
"A typical tropical cyclone season sees 10-13 cyclones in the Australian region, with about 4 crossing the coast" said Dr Watkins.
South of the tropics, bushfire potential remains raised in many areas, including around most southern capital cities.
The Bureau’s rainfall and temperature climate outlooks show the likelihood, as a percentage, of experiencing wetter and warmer than average weather for the upcoming three months.
They are used to inform a range of decision-makers across industries such as agriculture, water, emergency services and energy and resources. To view the full outlook and watch our climate and water outlook video: www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks
