Tropical cyclone outlook released, communities urged to prepare early

15/10/2012

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued its tropical cyclone seasonal outlook today, reminding communities in Australia’s northern coastal regions to prepare now for the coming wet season.

Bureau of Meteorology Climate Prediction Manager, Dr Andrew Watkins, said advances in the science of climate prediction allow us to accurately gauge the likelihood of above or below average tropical cyclone activity, and better inform severe weather planning.

“The overall outlook is for a return to near average, or slightly below average, tropical cyclone activity, but this does not mean we can afford to be complacent about the risks,” said Dr Watkins.

“The tropical cyclone outlook uses key climate indicators to look at what the coming season may bring. Currently the climate is in neutral territory, meaning neither La Niña or El Niño conditions are present. Typically La Niña events are associated with more tropical cyclone activity, and El Niño with less.

“More than a century of forecasting and observing the weather tells us we can expect around 11 tropical cyclones to form in the Australian region in an average season, and some of these will have an impact in coastal regions,” said Dr Watkins.