Tropical cyclone outlook released: Northwest communities urged to prepare
15/10/2012
The Bureau of Meteorology has issued its tropical cyclone seasonal outlook today. Today also marks the first day in the Bureau and FESA’s tour of Western Australia’s northwest to promote cyclone and flood awareness, and preparation initiatives for the coming wet season.
Bureau of Meteorology Regional Manager for Severe Weather Services in WA, Andrew Burton, said with the wet season rapidly approaching, it is important that residents start preparations immediately.
“Every season brings the risk of wind damage, flooding and isolation and there is simply no room for complacency. Coastal communities between Broome and Exmouth face the highest cyclone risk of anywhere in Australia.
“At this early stage, it is impossible to predict the likely onset, path or intensity of any individual cyclone that might occur. We expect around two coastal impacts and one of those is likely to be severe, but everyone in the northwest needs to be prepared from the start of the season on 1 November,” said Mr Burton.
Bureau of Meteorology Climate Prediction Manager, Dr Andrew Watkins, said the overall outlook is for a return to near average, or slightly below average, tropical cyclone activity, but this does not mean we can afford to be complacent about the risks.
“The tropical cyclone outlook uses key climate indicators to look at what the coming season may bring. Currently the climate is in neutral territory, meaning neither La Niña or El Niño conditions are present. Typically La Niña events are associated with more tropical cyclone activity, and El Niño with less,” said Dr Watkins.
Summary of the tropical cyclone seasonal outlook for Western Australia:
• A 42% chance of an above average number (58% chance of a below average number) of tropical cyclones in waters off the northwest coast (average number is five).
• Likelihood of around two coastal impacts.
• Significant risk of at least one severe tropical cyclone coastal impact during the season.
The Western Australia Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre operates out of the Bureau’s Perth Regional Office. Here specialist forecasters work around the clock with our emergency services partners to keep you informed in making decisions to ensure your safety.
