Seasonal outlook ushers in a welcome return to neutral conditions

21/11/2012

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued its latest seasonal outlook today (for December 2012 to February 2013), providing a long range forecast on likely conditions for the Australian summer.

Climate Prediction Manager, Dr Andrew Watkins, said climate models are showing clear signs that neutral conditions are likely to continue until autumn next year.

“Neutral conditions will mean some relief from the wetter conditions of the past two years when our climate was dominated by two back-to-back La Nina events, which produced Australia’s wettest two-year period on record.

“If conditions remain neutral, as expected, this will be the first neutral summer since 2005-06.

“Sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean off the west coast are warmer, and this is behind an increased chance of above average rainfall in parts of Western Australia.

“Above average rainfall is also likely for northern New South Wales and southeast Queensland, but it is not likely to be as wet as in the previous two years.

“What’s interesting in this outlook is a shift from the role of the Pacific Ocean, with the Indian Ocean expected to have a greater role in influencing Australia’s climate over the summer months.

“The overall trend is for warmer temperatures in the west, northern region and south east of the country,” said Dr Watkins.