Autumn Outlook: La Nina wanes while Australia faces a potentially wetter-than-average autumn

25/02/2022

Autumn days are likely to be wetter and warmer than normal for much of Australia.

The Bureau of Meteorology's Autumn Climate Outlook for 2022 has been released, and details the predicted climate and water conditions for the coming season.

Above-average autumn rainfall is likely for most areas of Australia, except the south-west and north-east.

Autumn is likely to be wetter than normal for much of Queensland and scattered areas of south-eastern Australia, including areas already impacted by summer floods.

While La Niña has led to increased rain in eastern and northern Australia, observations and climate models suggest it is likely at or past its peak and expected to end in mid-autumn 2022.

Autumn days are likely to be warmer than normal for much of the northern half of Australia, coastal Western Australia, and parts of south-eastern Australia, while a small area of eastern New South Wales will likely be cooler than normal.

Across Australia, night-time temperatures are predicted to be higher than normal.

Australia’s severe weather season runs from October to April, meaning autumn remains a higher-risk period for storms, fires, floods and tropical cyclones.

Dry conditions in Western Australia mean bushfire risk will remain raised during autumn, while areas of eastern Australia that have been wet in recent months will have below-average fire risk.

There have been five tropical cyclones in the Australian region since the start of the tropical cyclone season in November, including four over the summer. February to March is usually the peak of the tropical cyclone season. With warm waters around northern Australia, further tropical cyclone development remains likely for autumn.

For more details on this and other climate outlooks and summaries, visit the Bureau's website: www.bom.gov.au/climate